Futures Research

For systems modelling, we are using tools like STELLA to simulate the behaviour of individuals and institutions in response to changing circumstances. For example, how do improved market access and better prices influence farmers’ crop choices?

In parallel, we are creating hydrological models (using tools such as DRYP) to understand the impact of changes in climate, infrastructure, and the actions of individuals and institutions on surface and groundwater resources. We shall integrate insights from the two models to gain a comprehensive picture of future scenarios spanning the social and hydrological aspects of the Transformation Labs.

We are organising focus group discussions and simulation games with the nonprofit Fields of View to understand communities’ adaptive capacities and the thresholds (critical points or limits beyond which a system undergoes significant changes or collapses) of their water and agricultural systems.

These insights are useful in imagining and articulating long-term possibilities and the pathways we can take to achieve them. By the end of this exercise, we shall generate a set of pathways for the development of water resources in both the Transformation Labs.

To this end, we are studying groundwater and surface water systems, and analysing climate and land use land cover data. We have:

1. Mapped surface water flow paths, including canals, which were previously not digitised.
2. Compiled data layers for use in hydrological and systems modelling.
3. Finalised boundary conditions for the hydrological and climatic modelling of both Transformation Labs.

In the Raichur Transformation Lab, we have:

1. Identified the boundary for the monitoring of groundwater and surface water.
2. Identified 191 wells for monitoring.
3. Installed four loggers in open and bore wells in the command area of Distributary 10 (~50 sq. km), part of the larger Raichur Transformation Lab (~5,500 sq. km).

In Distributary 10, community hydrologists are manually monitoring canals and natural streams.

The data from these will feed into our hydroclimatic models. These are complicated to develop due to the presence of a canal system and river basin in the region.

In the Chikkaballapur Transformation Lab, we have:

1. Identified which borewells (in both urban and rural areas) are abandoned and which ones are working, and monitoring them.
2. Conducted a vulnerability assessment of domestic water supply access in Chintamani town.

Under the programme, we are training eight people to use video and audio tools to share stories for farmers and those in allied occupations. We are providing prompts to help them shape their narratives (for example, the influence water availability has on their daily activities). The goal is to equip them to launch and run their video channels so that they can share perspectives from the grassroots.

We are collaborating with the Institute for What Works to Advance Gender Equality (IWWAGE) to identify and develop equitable frameworks for our interventions. Such frameworks are helping us identify the differentiated impacts of climate and development challenges on various groups.

We are expanding the scope of the Futures Research programme beyond the CLARITY project to develop and document two futures research methodologies:

1. Participatory future envisioning.
2. Appraisal of different pathways using tools like STELLA and multi-criteria analysis.

We are using insights from these to build a curriculum on futures research for PhD and Master’s students. We are also exploring research methodologies around modelling (hydrological, climate, crop, etc.), data analysis, scenario-building, and co-creating pathways, and incorporating them in other WELL Labs initiatives.

We conducted 24 interviews with farmers, civil society organisations’ members, and representatives of women’s self-help groups. We shall soon a publish a report on the study.

Under the programme, we conducted four workshops between November 2024 and September 2025 with a cohort of 35 aspiring community hydrologists to:

1. Inculcate a foundational understanding of groundwater, surface water, hydrogeology, soil, and crop-water relationships.
2. Measure and monitor rainfall, groundwater levels, canals, and streamflow using simple, low-cost methods to leverage data for water management.
3. Prepare water balances and crop water budgets and use them to decide what crops to grow and when to schedule irrigation.
4. Strengthen community institutions and water governance by providing advisory services to water user cooperative societies and farmer groups.
5. Promote water stewardship by framing groundwater and canal water as shared resources requiring collective responsibility and management.

We collated primary and secondary data to provide a baseline characterisation of the challenges and opportunities with respect to environmental and economic resilience in the Raichur and Chikkaballapur Transformation Labs.